Korean Hugfest

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FvS
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Re: Korean Hugfest

Post by FvS » Sun May 13, 2018 6:57 am

Neodoxy wrote:I mean, you would have thought that about the cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union, too:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Sovi ... m_incident

And there were other false alarms too. There is no such thing as a fool proof human system, that is an illusion, and I definitely don't trust NK to implement necessary failsafes.
So close to nuclear annihilation...

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"Most whites do not have a racial identity, but they would do well to understand what race means for others. They should also ponder the consequences of being the only group for whom such an identity is forbidden and who are permitted no aspirations as a group." - Jared Taylor

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Tom Rogers
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Re: Korean Hugfest

Post by Tom Rogers » Sun May 13, 2018 12:26 pm

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Merlin
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Re: Korean Hugfest

Post by Merlin » Sun May 13, 2018 10:53 pm

Tom Rogers wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 12:26 pm
I wonder what others here think about my thesis? I predict that the two Koreas, whether or not unified, may now move towards a more Chinese-oriented position. In other words, a 'nuclear-free' Korean Peninsula puts Korea in the Sinosphere.
Well, the Japanese-Korean tension will always be there, and holding on to two allies who are so opposed to one-another (another Turkey-Greece scenario) will prove very hard, especially when there are options in the region. Still, China is right there while the US is an ocean away, so if you need to pick a protector, better pick the one further away. I see about equal chances of a unified Korea veering away from the US orbit.

Also, the end of testing does not mean that the north renounces weapons: they now know that they work, and know how to build future warhead reliably, so they sell the end of testing as a concession. Actually renouncing the weapons would be lunacy.

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Tom Rogers
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Re: Korean Hugfest

Post by Tom Rogers » Mon May 14, 2018 8:47 am

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Merlin
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Re: Korean Hugfest

Post by Merlin » Wed May 16, 2018 10:41 pm

Tom Rogers wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 8:47 am
I suppose the issue in that specific regard is whether the North will give up its actual nuclear capacity, such as it is, as opposed to simply abandoning testing.
To get those weapons, Kim looked into the abyss and the abyss blinked, so I would be astounded if he decides to give them up now. The fact that the US tore the Iran agreement mere days after the end of Korean testing would seem to clearly indicate that the US in no longer interested in vigorously pursuing this conflict and has low-key blessed the northern nuclear arsenal. Unless it all a ruse to get them drop their guard, of course.

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Tom Rogers
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Re: Korean Hugfest

Post by Tom Rogers » Fri May 18, 2018 4:45 pm

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Merlin
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Re: Korean Hugfest

Post by Merlin » Sat May 19, 2018 12:00 pm

Tom Rogers wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 4:45 pm
The Americans are on their way out. All the Chinese have to do is encourage gradual steps towards cross-border integration.
Yes, but with extreme care and giving ample (if implicit) guarantees that the US isn’t going to be pushed out of the region, just out of Korea. It would be very, very easy for someone in DC to panic and do something rash to avoid the prospect of a nuclearized, unified Korea without US troops. The Chinese need to think long and hard about ceding what they need to in Japan or elsewhere in the region to sweeten the prospect.

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Tom Rogers
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Re: Korean Hugfest

Post by Tom Rogers » Sun May 27, 2018 8:05 pm

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